The State of IsraelMaimon Schwarzschild

A very well-informed and revealing post by Michael Livingston about the state of Israel, as war with Hezbollah continues.

[T]he war has caused an outpouring of criticism regarding Israel’smilitary and political performance, not to mention attacks from thosewho were not notably sympathetic to Israel in the first place. Icontinue to think the military criticism is overstated, for reasonsI’ll get to in a moment. But the political damage may be worse thanimagined, and requires serious and immediate attention.

The military criticism is based on the assumption that Israel couldhave or should have dealt with Hezbollah more rapidly than it did, andthat failure to do so indicates a deterioriation in Israel’s”deterrent” capability. The problem with this criticism is that–likethe Israeli Government itself–it understates the strength of Hezbollahand the difficulties Israel faces in fighting it. Hezbollah presents aunique combination of highly motivated forces, fighting in a defensiveposture on familiar terrain, but armed with reasonably up-to-dateweapons including rockets, missiles, and antitank weapons. It was nevergoing to be easy to dislodge such a force, any more than it was easy todisplace the Iraqi insurgents in Fallujah or (for that matter) theJapanese on Iwo Jima, where the Americans enjoyed an equivalentadvantage in firepower and didn’t have to worry much about civiliancasualties.

I have not mentioned the moral aspect of Israel’s air campaign, whichpresents a serious issue, although I will note that the governingassumption–that Hezbollah uses civilian homes, trucks, etc. to hideand transport military equipmemnt–is unquestionably true; take a lookat any of the pro-Hezbollah websites if you don’t believe it.

While the military criticisms strike me as overstated, the political damage should not be underestimated…

The internal problem relates to Israeli society and its preparation forwar. Put bluntly, Israel has gotten just a little bit too complacent inthe past one or two decades. One sees this most directly in thedeterioration of the miluim(reserves) system, which many Israelis ignore, and (perhaps) in thefailure to prepare shelters and safe rooms more effectively. But thereare deeper internal divisions, reflecting a society that no longerbelieves in its socialist past but has yet to find another convincingideology to replace it. The open contempt that many secular Israelisfeel for their religious countrymen is one part of this; the failure toinclude Israeli Arabs, and poor Jews, is another. These problems do notdirectly impact military performance, but they have a long-termcorrosive effect, and their existence tends to embolden enemies who seethem as a sign of decline (Nasrallah has cited Israeli newspaperreports even from his underground hideout). Anyone who doubts theeffect of internal divisions on Jewish security should take a look atthe Bible.

Israel is a country of seven million people with a standing army ofless than 200,000 soldiers. In a war with its Arab neighbors it canmore than hold its own. In a war with the Islamic world–Iran,Pakistan, Indonesia, increasingly vocal Islamic minorities in Europeand the United States–it must sooner or later be overwhelmed. Thetransformation of the Israeli-Arab into a Jewish-Islamic conflict, ofwhich this war represents a small first step, is thus a development tobe regarded with caution.

I don’t mean to end on a negative note. There are many encouragingsigns in this conflict, including the strength of American and evensome European support (who ever thought a British, let alone a German,prime minister would defend Israel in a key moment); the amazingdiversity of Israeli society (the casualties have come from everyimaginable Jewish community and many Arab ones; one was born inPennsylvania); the steadfastness of the home front; and numerous otherfactors. The casualties, although terrible for the stricken families,have in the aggregate been fewer than one day of the 1973 or even 1967wars. The point is not to panic, but to heed the lessons while there isstill time. In the Bible the prophets warn the people repeatedly tochange their ways: to heal social divisions; to live a spiritual ratherthan a merely material life; to put faith in God rather than foreignalliances. When they listen things eventually work out. When they don’tit’s not pretty.

Livingston’s analysis is sharp and deep, and deserves attention.  Read the whole thing.