What to Do in IraqMike Rappaport

This is one of the hardest questions that the United States currently faces.  There are a couple of suggestions that are frequently made:

1.  Withdraw the troops
2.  Threaten to withdraw the troops to get the Iraqi government to act against the violence
3.  Increase the troops
4.  Pursue a policy of dividing the country into three autonomous regions.

I have the following tentative proposal.  The United States should threaten to pursue 4 in order to get the Shia to agree to clamp down on the Shia militias and to agree to an agreement on oil revenues with the Sunnis.  To help enforce this arrangement, the US could increase troops (3) to support the new framework

If the existing Iraqi government does not work, perhaps the best move would be three autonomous regions.  The US could at least protect the Kurds.  The Shia would not like this policy, but that may be what is necessary to get them to agree to take the above actions.  Of course, the US would have to insist that the Sunnis agree to the new government and to start to take concrete actions, such as cooperating against any remaining insurgents.

It might not work, but then the US could fall back to the autonomous regions policy, which might avoid a civil war and would at least constrain Iran’s influence over the non-Shia portions of Iraq.