Some thoughts on Elon Musk’s plans to try to take over Twitter.

These are just some preliminary thoughts on Elon Musk’s recent acquisition of a toehold in Twitter and his professed plans to tender for the rest of Twitter’s shares and to take the company private.

First, like many other observers, it strikes me as a great idea, as nearly as I can tell, which is not much. But from where I stand, it sure looks like twitter needs new management and a lesson in free speech. Musk is better than most billionaires to school them.

But after that, the news is not so good. It could be this whole drama is not much more than another Muskian publicity stunt, notwithstanding my effusive comments on the proposed deal to my M&A class yesterday.

The next point is, Elon may not even have the money to pull this off. Look at this piece in the Wall Street Journal. Usually, an entrepreneur making a hostile bid has his financing in hand, ready to go. Elon did not, suggesting this is more of a stunt than a plan. He doesn’t have $43 billion in cash just sitting in his savings account. He would have to borrow it, pledging his stock to get the loan(s), and he may not have the uncommitted stock to do this, or he might need partners to do it.

After that, the market is reacting strangely to Elon’s promise to bid, as if it has seen this movie before. The price of twitter only increased by about 2 percent since he announced his going private plan, which is odd if the market sees it as actually happening. The market can be wrong, but it remains a pretty reliable guide to what’s going to happen. Twitter shareholders are not reacting like Elon is their Obi-wan Kenobe.

Finally, twitter has just adopted a poison pill. A pill is a very effective anti-takeover defense, which a Board of a target company can have in place beforehand or adopt when threatened by a hostile takeover. It shows clearly they mean to fight Elon or at least slow him down and get a higher bid out of him.

There’s a lot more to be said about this fascinating development. I think it really does demonstrate the need for an open market for free speech as well as for corporate control. Maybe Elon will get the bit between his teeth and decide to show twitter’s managers who’s boss — that does seem to happen sometimes in these transactions. Or maybe he will decide to sell his stock and collect the profits from his sale, though it looks like it will be less than he might have hoped. Perhaps twitter will have gotten the fear of God put into them, at least a little bit. Stay tuned — it promises to be a great show.