Issue 80, 9-15 May 2022 (Weekly update and free access) – Rochan Consulting
The last week of 9-15MAY did not bring any significant changes on the battlefields in Ukraine. The current situation favours stalemate in the short term and is increasingly favouring Ukraine in the medium to long term. The political-military leadership in Kyiv realises that Ukraine can only retake territories it has lost since 24FEB through military force. This is what the leadership would consider a victory.
From Moscow s perspective, the long-stated goal of demilitarisation and denazification of Ukraine is long gone. At the very least, the Kremlin needs to capture the Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts within their administrative borders to call the operation a victory. However, a rather anaemic performance of Russian units since the second phase of the operation began around 18APR, suggests that this objective is looking increasingly remote.
Consequently, whereas the past week did not bring any significant changes on the battlefield, time is working in Ukraine s favour. Unless Russia conducts mobilisation (general or partial), its armed forces will not only stall over the next few weeks, but the influx of Western weaponry and Ukrainian personnel will allow Kyiv to start pushing Russian units back along a much broader front.
According to my son Luke who lived in Kyiv until recently, this is a pretty good summary of where the war currently is.