Trump s second act: he can still win, in spite of everything | The Spectator

Meanwhile, Trump s re-election would alter the course of US foreign policy in significant ways. Though there have been some continuities in policy from his presidency to Biden s notably the continuation of tariffs on China, despite their negligible efficacy Trump 2.0 would more than likely deviate in significant ways from Biden s national security strategy.

This would be especially the case if, as seems probable, Trump avoided encumbering himself with military men consciously seeking to exert a restraining influence. Trump favours a trade war with China, not a cold war. He is not strongly committed to the defence of Taiwan. He would almost certainly seek to impose a compromise peace on Ukraine, as he regards the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky with something less than respect, and has a notorious inclination to do business with Vladimir Putin. And Trump would ditch the failed Middle East policy of seeking to revive the defunct nuclear deal with Iran and antagonising Saudi Arabia.

Perhaps all this is a delusion. After all, another lesson of history is that only one previous president has secured a second non-consecutive term: Grover Cleveland in 1892. As Jim Carville understood, change generally beats more of the same in America. But don t let anyone quote F. Scott Fitzgerald at you. A second Trump act is not just possible. It s fast becoming my base case.  

via archive.is

Niall Ferguson. Lots of chatter about this piece in the RW blogo-twitter-sphere.

It demonstrates Ferguson’s erudition but that’s about all. He’s right about Ukraine though. More reasons to beat hell out of the Ruzzians this summer.