Israel at the Precipice Once Again | RealClearPolitics
To wit, that strategy, much simplified: Hamas prepares for and executes the ISIS-style attack of Oct. 7. The sheer, Holocaust-reminiscent barbarity galvanizes Israel, which, spurred by emotion and necessity, decides upon the destruction of Hamas at whatever cost. If Israel bogs down in fighting through the dense urban rubble of Gaza or even if it doesn t, but has dangerously concentrated its resources on the southern front Iran instructs Hezbollah to fire its more than 100,000 missiles at Israel s cities, its closely concentrated critical infrastructure, and its military targets (Hamas has done this routinely, but its missiles are much less capable), and to let loose its formidable armed forces upon Israel s north. Simultaneously, Iran launches hundreds of ballistic missiles at the same exposed and essential concentrations. A combination of Hezbollah, Syrian, and Iranian forces resident on the Golan front mounts an attack from the northeast. A carefully prepared rising on the West Bank occurs in conjunction with parallel operations (such as in the July 2021 trial run) by Israeli Arabs within Israel itself. If Israel appears to be tottering, the Arab street may force now coldly friendly, apparently neutral, or merely gun-shy Arab states to join in the frenzy, much as they did in 1948, 1967, and 1973.
Of course, this scenario takes no account either of how Israel can respond with its conventional forces, or of its nuclear arsenal. First, although it is hard to believe that Israel has not been aware of the trap described in the previous paragraph, it would hardly be surprising were it, instead of preempting with the strategic éclat of the Six Day War or the 1976 Entebbe hostage rescue, simply to count on its resilience. Or on its ability to respond defensively even if without the initiative and according to the timetable of its enemies. Nor would it be surprising if it overestimated what it can do, and underestimated its opponents, as in the 1973 Yom Kippur War and so painfully of late. Second, faced with the Iranian theocracy s affection for end-times martyrdom, Israel s nuclear weapons, although immensely potent in effect, are far less powerful as a deterrent.
To consider, depending on when you are reading, what Israel may, should, or can have done or may yet, should, and can do it is necessary unemotionally and objectively to rank the threats it faces so that it might go after them in advantageous order, seizing rather than responding to the initiative. In terms of ascending threat, they are Gaza, Hezbollah, and Iran, although whom to strike first is not Iran but Hezbollah, the gravest threat until Iran crosses thenuclear threshold, which absent a fraught Israeli or unlikely U.S. bombing campaign it soon will. Perhaps more succinctly, in regard to the rank order of threats, why talk to the monkey when the organ grinder is in the room?
Mark Helprin.
Talented novelist as well as astute political commentator.
BTW Obama and his little helpers are the ones responsible for this utter charlie foxtrot we’re in. It all stems from the brilliant idea of bringing Iran into the dysfunctional family of nations to somehow balance out Israel and the Saudis. If we get out of this without a WW3, we’ll be lucky. But I suppose Obama is right that Israel is on the side of the West and not some sort of crazed socialist, global South idea of the ideal future. Say what you will of the WASP elite, but they at least were more circumspect in their efforts to build a world empire. Maybe because they had some first hand experience of war.