Redefining Success in Ukraine | Foreign Affairs
kraine s counteroffensive appears to have stalled, just as wet and cold weather brings to a close the second fighting season in Kyiv s effort to reverse Russian aggression. At the same time, the political willingness to continue providing military and economic support to Ukraine has begun to erode in both the United States and Europe. These circumstances necessitate a comprehensive reappraisal of the current strategy that Ukraine and its partners are pursuing.
Such a reassessment reveals an uncomfortable truth: namely, that Ukraine and the West are on an unsustainable trajectory, one characterized by a glaring mismatch between ends and the available means. Kyiv s war aims the expulsion of Russian forces from Ukrainian land and the full restoration of its territorial integrity, including Crimea remain legally and politically unassailable. But strategically they are out of reach, certainly for the near future and quite possibly beyond.
The time has come for Washington to lead efforts to forge a new policy that sets attainable goals and brings means and ends into alignment. The United States should begin consultations with Ukraine and its European partners on a strategy centered on Ukraine s readiness to negotiate a cease-fire with Russia and to simultaneously switch its military emphasis from offense to defense. Kyiv would not give up on restoring territorial integrity or holding Russia economically and legally accountable for its aggression, but it would acknowledge that its near-term priorities need to shift from attempting to liberate more territory to defending and repairing the more than 80 percent of the country that is still under its control.
All this intellectual effort of “redefining success” would not have been necessary had Biden and Europe been able to get their act together and provided Ukraine with the arms necessary to beat back the Russians. Now there are a lot more Ukrainians and Russians dead and no victory.