Goldman Sachs s Jan Hatzius Has Nailed Big Calls on the Economy. Here s His Next One. – WSJ
is upbeat about the economy this year. Its economists see healthy growth of 2.3%, unemployment staying below 4%, and the probability of recession at just 15% all more optimistic than the consensus. And they see inflation, excluding food and energy, continuing to fall, to a little over 2% (using the Federal Reserve s preferred measure) by year-end.
Forecasts are a dime a dozen. Why care about Goldman s? First, because its economists have been firmly in the soft-landing camp, which now looks prescient.
Second, Jan Hatzius, the firm s chief economist, made an equally out-of-consensus, and prescient, call in the opposite direction in 2008. Back then, he correctly warned that mortgage defaults could cause a severe recession.
Nailing one big call might be luck; nailing two gets you a following. Hatzius is one of the most closely followed economists on Wall Street and in Washington.
via www.wsj.com