How Will the War in Ukraine End? Two Scenarios – WSJ

The Trump-Putin summit in Alaska is over, and peace in Ukraine isn t yet nigh. But the two most likely endings to the Russian invasion are coming into view.

Ukraine could lose land but survive as a secure and sovereign, if shrunken, nation state. Alternatively, it could lose both land and sovereignty, falling back into Moscow s sphere of influence.

Which will come to pass and when is no clearer after Alaska, which disappointed hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough.

Russian President Vladimir Putin brushed off the push by the U.S. and Europe for a cease-fire that would freeze the current front line, followed by talks about control of Ukrainian territories and guarantees for Ukraine s security. Instead, Putin signaled he would continue the war until Ukraine and the West are willing to satisfy Moscow s broader geopolitical aims.

We are convinced that, in order for the Ukrainian settlement to be sustainable and long-term, all the root causes of the crisis, which have been repeatedly discussed, must be eliminated, all of Russia s legitimate concerns must be taken into account, and a fair balance in the field of security in Europe and the world as a whole must be restored, Putin said after the summit.  

via www.wsj.com