Body Count | Epsilon Theory
Sure enough, the WHO announcements since this prediction was published have been eerily close.
- 2/5 24,363 cases 491 fatalities
- 2/6 28,060 cases 564 fatalities
- 2/7 31,211 cases 637 fatalities
- 2/8 34,598 cases 723 fatalities
- 2/9 37,251 cases 812 fatalities
- 2/10 40,171 cases 908 fatalities
Crazy, right? The deaths being reported out of China are particularly accurate to the model, while the reported cases are leveling off (which is what you d expect from a politically adjusted epidemic model over time & at some point you have to show a rate-of-change improvement from your epidemic control measures).
But wait, there s more.
The really damning part of Antimonic s modeling of the reported data with a quadratic formula is that this should be impossible. This is not how epidemics work.
All epidemics take the form of an exponential function, not a quadratic function.
Shocking but not surprising.