JPMorgan’s Kolanovic Has A Warning For Those Expecting A Crushing Biden Victory | Zero Hedge
.. but whatever the reason, JPMorgan’s top quant Marko Kolanovic wrote and interesting note yesterday in which he said that clients have been asking him “what data in addition to polls are available to assess possible US election outcomes in various states.”
To answer this question, Kolanovic said that he looked at the historical changes in voter registration data and back-tested their relevance to election outcomes.
Why? Because according to Marko, it is intuitive that “if more voters register for a party, that they will also vote for that party.” However, being a quant, Kolanovic immediately focused on the causative, not correlative aspects of this observation, and as he puts it, “the question is how significant the relationship is and what is the beta of additional registered voters to actual votes.” The chart below shows data for seven battleground states that provide these data and presidential elections over the past 20 years.
Believe it if you like. I will be making predictions only after the result are available. Like most pundits.