Trump’s Path to Victory (With a Nod to Washington State) | RealClearPolitics
Obviously, for Trump to win this election, the reality as of today has to be closer to the picture painted by polls like the USA Today/Suffolk survey of Florida than to that of CNN. There are justifications for believing this is possible: In particular, differential response bias can create the appearance of surges of support when bad news hits one side or the other. We should also remember that it was almost exactly on this date in 2016 that the Access Hollywood tape dropped; if there has ever been a time that Trump looked to be dead politically, it was then.
Regardless, the possibility of a Biden blowout — and what it would mean for Republicans — will be the subject of a forthcoming article. For now, here are two indicators of the national environment I ve used in analyzing previous elections that, if Trump were to win (or barely lose), would have been important, overlooked indicators.