Just How Big Is Joe Biden s Lead? A Guide to the Differences in Polls John Zogby Strategies
There have been three national polls since the first Presidential debate. Two polls (one for Investors Business Daily by TIPP and the other by John Zogby Strategies-EMI Research Solutions) show a 3- and 2- point lead respectively by the former VP. The other by the Wall Street Journal and NBC with a 14-point lead by Mr. Biden. Let s get the obvious out of the way. TIPP is an excellent polling outfit, one of the most accurate covering Presidential races over the past decade. The WSJ/NBC has been around a long time and is truly bipartisan a joint project by prominent Democratic and Republican pollsters. And my Zogby polls have an unbroken record of near-perfect accuracy from 1996-2012. (I sold my company and was not directly involved in 2016).
First, the Zogby Strategies-EMI Research Solutions Poll of 1006 likely voters nationwide was the only poll taken start-to-finish after the President entered Walter Reed Hospital. (October 2). The others were taken after the Tuesday night debate but before any report of the President s positive Covid-19 testing. It is hard to definitively address the impact of the President s test, but it is an additional variable in our polling as opposed to that of our colleagues.
Second, is the issue of sampling. I am a lifelong Democrat and have mainly voted that way over the decades. But I have also felt that many of our colleagues have oversampled Democrats. In the WSJ/NBC Poll, 45% of those polled identified as Democrat and 36% as Republican. Even with a Clinton victory in the 2016 popular vote, the exit polling showed 38% saying they were Democrats or leaning that way, while 34% were Republicans. A nine-point difference between the current poll and the 2016 result. TIPP has a 40%-40% partisan split, while the Zogby Strategies has stuck with the 2016 model of 38% Democrat to 34% Republican. Given that our polling shows Mr. Biden leading 91%-8% among Democrats and Mr. Trump has climbed to a 94%-6% lead among fellow Republicans, it looks like partisanship and voting intent really matter.
Into the weeds.