Will Rioting Sway the Election Picture? | RealClearPolitics
Donald Trump trails Joe Biden in the RealClearPolitics polling average by a significant margin, as he has for the entire year. However, the rioting and shootings in cities, combined with the end of the Republican National Convention, have raised concerns in some quarters on the left that Trump may be getting a bounce. Remember, because he likely has a built-in edge in the Electoral College, a reasonably small bounce at the national level would make this a very competitive race.
The truth is, we probably have to wait another day or two for more post-convention polling to give us a better view of the picture. (An Emerson survey shows the contest tightening.) But there has been a growing argument, raised by the Biden campaign in his Pittsburgh speech Monday, that unrest in the streets should be attributed to Trump. Perhaps it will be, but this raises some larger questions about how elections work, so it is worth addressing.