We ll Never Have an Energy Transition
We find a useful referee in this war of words with the recently released Eye on the Market 15th Annual Energy Paper by Michael Cembalest, J. P. Morgan s chairman of market and investment strategy. As this 70-slide, deep-dive report pointedly notes, after $9 trillion globally over the last decade spent on wind, solar, electric vehicles, energy storage, electrified heat and power grids, the renewable transition is still a linear one; the renewable share of final energy consumption is slowly advancing at 0.3% 0.6% per year [emphasis added]. One does not need a mathematics degree to understand that such anemic growth rates are not the hallmarks of an unstoppable juggernaut. Hence, Cembalest s bottom line: Growth in fossil fuel consumption is slowing but no clear sign of a peak on a global basis. That is to say, no energy transition is in sight.
For the transitionists, this is just proof that we need more spending and more aggressive mandates. Set aside whether any political appetite exists for either more such inflationary spending or more intrusive energy diktats. The fundamental question is whether any energy transition is even possible or even whether such has ever happened.
I wonder when Elon will get the memo.