Slouching Towards Trump – by Nate Silver – Silver Bulletin
Most people don t realize that Trump has a strong chance of becoming president again. The Biden campaign is reportedly dismayed that rank-and-file voters don t seem to realize that Trump is likely to be the GOP nominee. But this actually seems like a highly bullish fact for Biden. There s no hard-and-fast rule for when general election polls become meaningful, but the best heuristic is that you should start paying attention to polls once the matchup is locked in and voters aren t treating it as a hypothetical. Biden trails Trump in polls now, though his standing has improved over the past several weeks. But if voters mindset is LOL, they re not really going to nominate Trump and Biden again, are they? those polls might not mean so much. When Trump wins Iowa on Monday, the reality might finally start to set in.