Why All the ChatGPT Predictions Are Bogus

Maybe you see what I m getting at. Narrowly speaking, GPT-4 is a large language model that produces human-inspired content by using transformer technology to predict text. Narrowly speaking, it is an overconfident, and often hallucinatory, auto-complete robot. This is an okay way of describing the technology, if you re content with a dictionary definition. But it doesn t get to the larger question: When we re looking at generative AI, what are we actually looking at?

Sometimes, I think I m looking at a minor genius. The previous GPT model took the uniform bar exam and scored in the 10th percentile, a failing grade; GPT-4 scored in the 90th percentile. It scored in the 93rd percentile on the SAT reading and writing test, and in the 88th percentile on the LSAT. It scored a 5, the highest possible, on several Advanced Placement tests. Some people are waving away these accomplishments by saying Well, I could score a 5 on AP Bio too if I could look everything up on the internet. But this technology is not looking things up online. It s not rapid-fire Googling answers. It s a pretrained technology. That is, it s using what passes for artificial reasoning, based on a large amount of data, to solve new test problems. And on many tests, at least, it s already doing this better than most humans.

Sometimes, I think I m looking at a Star Trek replicator for content a hyper-speed writer and computer programmer. It can code in a pinch, spin up websites based on simple illustrations, and solve programming challenges in seconds. Let s imagine a prosaic application. Parents can instantly conjure original children s books for their kids. Here s a scenario: Your son, who loves alligators, comes home in tears after being bullied at school. You instruct ChatGPT to write a 10-minute, rhyming story about a young boy who overcomes his bully thanks to his magical stuffed alligator. You re going to get that book in minutes with illustrations.

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