How to Get a Breakthrough in Ukraine | Foreign Affairs
Ukraine is doing so well in part thanks to the unified Western response. Unlike reactions to Russia s invasion of Georgia in 2008 or Ukraine in 2014, the Western pushback against Putin s latest war has been strong along multiple fronts. NATO enhanced its eastern defenses and invited Sweden and Finland to join the alliance. Europe has provided shelter to hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian refugees. Led by the Biden administration, the West has provided massive amounts of military and economic support at amazing speed, levied punishing sanctions, and begun a difficult shift away from Russian energy. Even Chinese leader Xi Jinping has offered Putin only faint rhetorical support for his war. He has not provided Russia with weapons and has cautiously avoided violating the global sanctions regime.
These are the reasons for optimism. The bad news, however, is that the war continues, and Putin has shown no signs of wanting to end it. Instead, he is planning a major counteroffensive this year. The Russians are preparing some 200,000 fresh troops, General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, the commander in chief of Ukraine s armed forces, warned in December. I have no doubt they will have another go at Kyiv. Even though Putin must understand by now that Ukrainians are willing to fight for as long as it takes to liberate their country, he still believes that time is on his side. That is because Putin expects Western governments and societies to lose their will and interest to keep helping Ukraine. If Putin or his aides watch the television personality Tucker Carlson on Fox News or saw the protests last fall in Prague, their hunch about waning Western support would be confirmed.
Michael McFaul. Prof. McFaul is a Davos man but he’s still right about Ukraine. Concerning our interventions abroad, sometimes even the blind bird gets the worm. There are many things that have to be just right for the US to be justified in intervening, and Ukraine is that rare case.