What Will a 22nd-Century Toynbee Say About Ukraine? – WSJ

First, our future historian would note that Russia s invasion has reified Ukrainian nationhood. Vladimir Putin s assertion that the Russians and Ukrainians constitute one people has been rebutted in blood. Also swept away is Samuel Huntington s characterization of Ukraine as a cleft country, divided internally and suspended civilizationally between Russia and the West. This was a plausible description in the 1990s, but the same conditions no longer endure. Millions of Ukraine s Russian-speakers are learning the Ukrainian language, supporting the war effort, and spying behind enemy lines. Many Ukrainians chose to celebrate Christmas on Dec. 25, rather than the Russian Orthodox Jan. 7. To adapt Charles Tilly s famous line about the state: War is making the nation, and the nation is making war.

This brings us to the historian s second observation: As a result of the war, Russia is increasingly bordered by the West. Toynbee viewed Russian civilization as a sister society, of the same Graeco-Roman parentage as ours, but one that had always put up a strong resistance against threats of being overwhelmed by our Western world. Now, with formerly neutral Finland (along with Sweden) joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, Russia has gained an 800-mile border with Western power. To the south, Ukraine is now a major regional military power in its own right. Even setting aside the formalities of European Union and eventual NATO accession, unoccupied Ukraine appears irrevocably attached to the West.

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