WaPo analyst: Democrats are fooling themselves on midterm turnout HotAir

The changed political landscape has given a lot of Democrats (probably false) hope that they can retain the majority in the House of Representatives and perhaps gain stronger control of the US Senate.

The Washington Post has some bad news for them, though. They are probably screwed if they still believe this.

On Monday the Post published an Opinion piece by David Byler, a data analyst and political columnist who used to work at RealClearPolitics. He did something that most political reporters are too lazy to do: dive into the numbers and look at how elections have turned out in the past. You may have noticed that a lot of the horse race polls have shown that Republicans aren t doing as well as expected, and Republicans have gotten a bit nervous about what is going on.

The thing is that the polls have a terrible track record of predicting close elections. They suck. Like really bad. They always underestimate Republican turnout.

So Byler looked at more reliable indicators, and behold! If this election is anything like other recent elections, things look pretty good for Republicans.

via hotair.com