Nancy Pelosi s Taiwan Straits – WSJ

A serious Chinese military intervention would be a strategic watershed. That could include an attempt to intercept and perhaps harass Mrs. Pelosi s plane, which we hope will have a U.S. military escort as a deterrent. The chances for miscalculation in that scenario are high. In the worst case, China could demand that her plane not land under threat of being shot down. It isn t clear how the U.S. pilots of her plane would respond.

This could be the first step in a Beijing quarantine strategy to declare that China has the right to block or inspect any aircraft or ship seeking to land in Taiwan. China could also let Mrs. Pelosi s plane land and later move to seize Quemoy and Matsu, the offshore islands controlled by Taiwan that triggered a geopolitical crisis in the 1950s.

The fact that any of these scenarios have to be taken seriously in Washington shows how Taiwan has already become a dangerous U.S.-China flashpoint. For 50 years the mutual understanding has been that China will wait for peaceful reunification while the U.S. recognizes one China and is ambiguous about defending Taiwan. That is no longer holding. Mr. Xi wants to unify China on his presidential watch, and Beijing s rhetoric and its military posture are increasingly belligerent.

via www.wsj.com

Whatever you think the best long-term strategy is on Taiwan, this is the wrong moment for us to push the issues to a head. The US Navy is frankly unprepared for a showdown with the PRC. The Air Force and Army are not much better. We do not currently have a competent Commander in Chief, and the rest of our military hierarchy pretty much showed their lack of mettle in Afghanistan. Pelosi herself is a walking risk, if she doesn’t fall and break her hip. This could easily devolve into the blackest of farces.