John Robb on the end game in Ukraine
End Game
We are now in the war’s end game. The best way to understand this is to look at it from the perspective of Putin. He s driving the decision-making on how to end this war.
- A continuation of the status quo isn t an option. At this point in the conflict, Russia has no hope of gaining any concessions from Ukraine, and if the ground war persists, he risks a loss of territory and Ukrainian demands for the return of Crimea. Additionally, regardless of the outcome of the peace treaty with Ukraine, the western swarm will not relent in its cold war with Russia without a regime change (claims of war crimes and genocide).
- A loss is not acceptable. In response to the situation, Russia s internal network has become hyper-nationalist, making it unlikely to accept anything but victory and willing to accept escalation in the conflict. Additionally, if Russia loses this war, an emboldened west will aggressively increase its efforts to destabilize Russia to force a regime change1. Consequently, Putin cannot accept a loss in this conflict; he and everyone around him won t survive it.
- Putin s only viable option is to escalate the war to the nuclear level (Russia s only source of world-class strength) by destroying targets in Ukraine. How to justify it? Claim that western intervention in the war (Russia already started this process with a diplomatic warning to the US, which the US ignored and is claiming Ukraine is shelling Russian cities) has turned the conflict into a battle of survival. From Putin s perspective, the use of nuclear weapons would make the west wary of further intervention in Russia and force Ukraine to the bargaining table on favorable terms, giving him the time he needs to focus on purging internal dissent. In short, Russia would become as isolated and totalitarian as North Korea, but Putin would remain alive and in power, forever changing the world in the process.
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It’s certainly possible that Putin will fire a tactical nuke at Kyiv and justify it with his usual lies. But if he is determined to go so far, what can we do to stop him? He does not want to negotiate in anything remotely like good faith. He seems only willing to accept surrender, and that seems likely to be followed, perhaps after a pause, by his next move — Poland or a Baltic state. He seems really to believe in Russia’s right to rule Poland, the Baltics, and who knows how much else.
I’m hardly an expert on all of this. But I think all we can do is resist Putin and hope he is in his own psychopathic way, rational. I hope we have people who are thinking hard now about how we should respond to the Russians using nukes. One suggestion might be to let Putin know a big bunker buster, nuclear or not, would be targeted exactly on his ugly head were he to do this, and we’re keeping track of his whereabouts.
I wish we had a competent president in the WH. I doubt Trump would be up to this either. We should make electing a competent President next time around a high priority, assuming we’re still here.