How Might the War in Ukraine End? Five Factors Will Shape the Outcome – WSJ

Vladimir Putin s invasion of Ukraine isn t going as planned so far, according to military strategists, with Russia facing tougher armed resistance than expected and harsh Western sanctions.

That raises the question, what next?

Although predictions are next to impossible, military strategists are focusing on several factors to provide clues, including the performance of the armies on the ground and the impact of sanctions.

One thing becoming clear is that the performance of Russia s military thus far is delivering Mr. Putin a reality check and potentially scrambling the range of outcomes. Every day the Ukrainians don t lose, they win politically, said Michael Clarke, former director of the Royal United Services Institute, a London think tank. And the political cost for him is going up on a daily basis.

Lawrence Freedman, a professor emeritus of war studies at King s College, London, doesn t think the Russians will succeed in installing a puppet government in Ukraine. They can t occupy the whole country, he said. A puppet government in Kyiv not backed by Russian arms wouldn t have any legitimacy and wouldn t survive.

That will likely make it difficult for Mr. Putin to convincingly declare victory. James Sherr, senior fellow of the Estonian Foreign Policy Institute, predicted that Mr. Putin won t take the rational step of seeking an off ramp, but will double down.

Here are five variables military analysts say could determine the course of the war:

via www.wsj.com