China Is a Declining Power and That’s the Problem
There s indeed a deadly trap that could ensnare the United States and China. But it s not the product of a power transition the Thucydidean cliché says it is. It s best thought of instead as a peaking power trap. And if history is any guide, it s China s not the United States impending decline that could cause it to snap shut.
I tend to think China is going to decline, at least if Xi sticks to his let’s-chop-successful-capitalists-down-to-size program. And so I think this is indeed a problem. Take deep breaths.