Coronavirus Perspective | Hoover Institution

From this available data, it seems more probable than not that the total number of cases world-wide will peak out at well under 1 million, with the total number of deaths at under 50,000 (up about eightfold). In the United States, if the total death toll increases at about the same rate, the current 67 deaths should translate into about 500 deaths at the end. Of course, every life lost is a tragedy and the potential loss of 50,000 lives world-wide would be appalling but those deaths stemming from the coronavirus are not more tragic than others, so that the same social calculus applies here that should apply in other cases. 

via www.hoover.org

I agree with Richard at least as far as saying the economic cost of the reaction to the Wuhan Virus will be worse than the cost in lives and illness. But things do look bad in Italy.