The situation in San Diego as of 3/14/20
LWJ sent the following email to a woman in her church group in response to her request to send her a contact list so she could invite people to a party she is planning to cheer people up because of cancellations of various events caused by the pandemic outbreak:
Hi ____________,
I have the San Diego numbers for you as of yesterday.
145 people have been tested.
11 were positive
59 are still pending.
If all of the still pending results are negative, the incidence of the virus in the tested population is 7.5%. If all of the pending cases are positive, the incidence is 41%.
On March 8th there were 500 cases in the US. Now, just 6 days later, there are 2,572. That dramatic rise is in part due to the fact that we have been ramping up testing, but data from other countries that are farther along in the pandemic show a doubling time of 6 days. So by March 20th, we’ll have over 5000 cases.
Eight days ago, Italy had 2500 cases – about the same number that we have now. They now have over 21,000.
Why is it spreading so fast – three reasons. It’s a brand new virus, so no one has immunity to it. Also, people can be asymptomatic but still spreading the virus for weeks before they show symptoms. And the virus can live on surfaces for days.
So we’re 8 days behind Italy. We still have a chance to avoid following in their footsteps, but it will require the cooperation of all of us. Your desire to bring joy into our lives at this stressful time is wonderful. I’m sure it would be a great party, but could we postpone it?
In addressing the issue of gatherings smaller than 250 people, Dr. Wilma Wooten, head of San Diego County’s HHS, has stated that they should not be attended by high risk people (this includes anyone over 60), and that those who do attend should maintain a distance between individuals of at least 6 feet. I don’t know how big your house is, but that would probably be pretty difficult.
So after giving it more thought, I cannot in good conscience as a physician send you the contact information because I feel that would mean that I’m OK with this gathering happening. I know you have many of the women’s numbers already and I can’t stop you from contacting them, but I hope you won’t.
Until just a few days ago, the message the American people were getting from our leaders was very misleading. Trump kept downplaying the seriousness of the situation, and that has led to a false sense of security among the people. I hope that now that he is listening to his advisors, his new message will be believed.
Sorry for the long email. I just feel very strongly about this. I want us all to stay healthy.
Jeanne
P.S. Johns Hopkins University is posting a great map that tracks the cases around the world. I just checked it again. In the time it has taken me to write this email, US cases have climbed from 2,572 to 2,726. Remarkable.