Is The Economy Still The Most Important Thing For Trump s Reelection? | FiveThirtyEight
For a long time now, political science has found a positive relationship between consumer sentiment and a president s approval rating. That is, the more optimistic Americans are about the economy, the higher a president s approval tends to be. But now there are signs that is no longer the case. Trump s approval rating, for instance, doesn t really track with views of the economy it s lower than you d expect. The same disconnect was true during former President Barack Obama s tenure, leaving some political scientists to conclude partisan loyalties might now be more important than anything else even the strength of the economy in evaluating presidential performance.