Trump Is An Underdog, But The Electoral College s Republican Tilt Improves His Chances | FiveThirtyEight
Even if you re not following the polls super closely like those of us at FiveThirtyEight, you probably know that Joe Biden has both a sizable and fairly stable lead over President Trump.
However, you shouldn t count Trump out just yet. Trump currently has a nearly 1 in 4 shot of winning the election,1
As of 9:15 a.m. Eastern on Sept. 28.
according to our presidential forecast, even though he only has a 1 in 10 chance of winning the national popular vote.
That s, of course, due to the Electoral College, in which Trump has an edge this year.
It Trump wins, it will be shocking but not surprising. If Biden wins, it will be shocking but not surprising. If it is too close to call, it will be shocking but not surprising. I can’t help but think that’s a bad sign.