Trump s Chances Are Dwindling. That Could Make Him Dangerous. | FiveThirtyEight
But for now, let me advance a few propositions:
- Even a small probability that the U.S. could become a failed or manifestly undemocratic state is worth taking seriously.
- There are a wide range of things that Trump could attempt to do, many of which would be quite damaging to the country, but they are not necessarily equally likely to succeed.
- Trump s actions are much more likely to actually change the result of the election if the outcome is close, and right now, the most likely scenario is that Biden wins by a not-so-close margin.
Beyond that, it s hard to estimate the probability that Trump could steal the election to any degree of precision. It requires, at a minimum, some knowledge of the probabilities in a free and fair election plus some knowledge of election law and how many votes could realistically come under dispute plus some theory of the institutional incentives of the Supreme Court and various other courts plus some opinions on how Congress might interpret the Constitution in the event of a disputed election. Maybe a panel of experts could get together and try to put together some reasonable bounds on the probability of various scenarios, but I don t know that any individual could certainly not me.
This sounds to me like crazy talk from deep inside the liberal bubble. But what do I know? I have been completely shocked by a lot of things this year. On both sides. Stay frosty, my friends.