Timing Biden’s Exit – by Christian Whiton – Super Macro by Christian Whiton
One wild card is California, which holds a recall election on September 14. Recent polls have incumbent Democrat Gavin Newsom with an edge, but accurately polling an unusual, off-year recall election during a pandemic is far from easy. If Larry Elder, a black conservative intellectual with populist skill, succeeds Newsom, it would be the biggest political earthquake in California since tax-limiting Prop 13 passed in 1978. It is the clearest choice between Right and Left in California since Barbara Don t Call Me Ma am Boxer prevailed over Bruce Herschensohn in 1992. An Elder victory would also instantly make him a candidate for the presidency in 2024; in fact, even a close loss would put him in contention. If he were to win, there is a strong chance he could appoint a Republican to succeed Senator Dianne Feinstein, the 88-year-old liberal who is harder to find than Vice President Harris, fueling speculation about her health.
Another Californian putting steel on target is Robert O Brien, the former National Security Advisor. I hosted O Brien at an event at the Center for the National Interest. We covered numerous topics from Afghanistan to China to the semiconductor wars. In response to a question about a hyper-woke, anti-US statement put out by Secretary of State Tony Blinken, O Brien said: That sounds like something our POWs used to have to read in self-denunciation at the Hanoi Hilton. Between O Brien and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Republicans have themselves the extreme rarity of national security figures who aren t trying to be Henry Kissinger, Part Deux.
I have no idea if this is prescient or just wishful thinking. But I find it somewhat interesting. Still, I would put my money on Ol’ Joe finishing out his term. Inertia matters.