Both parties’ ignorance of electoral reality has led to our present political discontents | Washington Examiner

Democrats assumed that Hillary Clinton would inherit President Barack Obama s voters and add feminists enthused about the first female following the first black president. Republicans such as Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio advocated the legalization of illegal immigrants, hoping that would attract Hispanic voters to cross party lines.

But none of them were elected president. Behind their erroneous conclusions were not just flawed data, but flawed assumptions. It was assumed that Hispanics would remain an overwhelmingly Democratic voting bloc, as black people had since 1964, due to rampant racial discrimination and that out of something like racial solidarity, they would recoil against Republicans who called for immigration restrictions.

That hasn t happened. In 2020, after five years of Trump s rasping rhetoric, Hispanic voters, like noncollege white people four years before, trended toward Trump (and Republicans) all across the country. The trend has continued: The tide of illegal border crossings has apparently turned the 90-plus percent Hispanic Rio Grande Valley from Democratic to Republican. This suggests that the whole post-1970 enterprise of including Hispanics in racial quota programs was based on the false assumption that their experiences will mirror those of black people. It looks as if they come closer to resembling the experiences of Italian or Polish Americans.

Flawed assumptions also worked against Hillary Clinton in 2016. It was assumed that she would carry blue wall Upper Midwestern states such as Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa that had been mostly casting Democratic electoral votes in the 1990s and 2000s, largely thanks to white noncollege voters outside their million-plus metropolitan areas. It was assumed that the larger than usual percentage of such voters supporting the first black president in 2008 and 2012 would have no difficulty voting to break the glass ceiling.

via www.washingtonexaminer.com

Wait! Is this true? Well, then let ’em in, let ’em all in! We’ll sort it out later!

I jest of course. But if Hispanic illegal non-documented proto-citizens are indeed future Republicans and not Democrats, it will be one of the greatest and most hilarious miscalculations in modern political history. And the solution to our border problem, too, because it will be self-correcting. At some point, we will have enough new citizens that they will decide it’s time to close the border. But — I’m not sure I believe it.