Trafalgar poll of Virginia: Youngkin 48.4, McAuliffe 47.5 HotAir

Maybe late deciders are choosing to roll the dice on a Republican after 12 years of Democratic rule with an establishment retread as Team Blue s nominee this year.

You know all about Trafalgar if you ve followed election polling over the last five years. Their surveys consistently predict redder turnout on Election Day than most pollsters do and that s produced some spectacularly accurate results because of it. They captured Trump s upsets in the midwest in 2016 when most of the competition had Hillary waltzing away with those states. Last year they called only 50 percent of races correctly, per FiveThirtyEight, but had the second-smallest average error of any pollster. When Trafalgar s polling on a race breaks from the pack, it s worth paying attention.

via hotair.com

Heh.