Today s Jobs Report Solves Some Headscratcher Mysteries | Wolf Street

The employment report, released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, was a shocker in the positive sense. Markets had counted on terrible numbers to derail the Fed s tightening strategy and derail the rate hike in March. But when the strong numbers came out, yields spiked, with the 10-year yield up 12 basis points to hit 1.93%, the highest since December 2019.

And there was another thing. The pandemic has wreaked havoc on the normal seasonal changes in the US economy: Home sales, retail sales, initial unemployment claims, the number of people who are working, etc. These economic activities fluctuate hugely and predictably with the seasons every year.

Seasonal adjustments, based on the normal seasonal patterns, are designed to smooth out the data and allow for month-to-month comparison. This worked fairly well until it didn t: When the pandemic screwed up the normal seasonality of the economy.

via wolfstreet.com

A bunch of twitter sages must have been greatly surprised.