The Ukraine Dilemma | Foreign Affairs
Another way to manage these contradictions is to use back channels to Putin to explore opportunities for de-escalation. Logical candidates for credible interlocutors include either other countries, such as China, Israel, or Turkey, or a private individual, someone who has a long-standing personal relationship with Putin. Establishing a private channel would not only send a message to Putin that NATO is open to negotiation if he stops the fighting but would also give leaders plausible deniability if their efforts were rebuffed. As painful as this is to contemplate, these offers would have to signal a willingness to lift some sanctions in response to de-escalation. Just as threats must be connected to behavior that leaders are trying to prevent, so must inducements be calibrated to behavior that they are trying to promote.
There are risks, of course, to signaling openness to negotiation. It is always possible that Putin could interpret this as a sign of weakness and escalate. That is exactly what advocates of deterrence would argue. But the Biden administration may be willing to take that risk. The White House has suggested that it is worried about uncontrolled escalation for example, deliberately canceling a nuclear test scheduled for the first week of March in order to avoid any misinterpretation by Russia. It would be surprising, then, if the Biden administration were not already tacitly encouraging approaches through back channels.